Future
Would you buy clothes this way?
Technology is getting very interesting these days, augemented reality, holograms and nanotechnology, these technologies are reshaping our future faster than we are willing to accept. I’m not convinced most men would buy in this fashion because, well, we’re shy. But I do believe that technology will make it easier for all to embrace, get ready because it’s here!
Here is a snap shot from a Cisco clip, take alook and enjoy:
iPad = Net Neutrality
Now that the iPad is available, many are jumping on the 1st version as a collectors item. Many are hailing the iPad as the future of computing, I don’t see it that way. I do see Apple’s iPad as a player in the Net Neutrality movement, it’s a closed system that forces you to play the Apple way. This gives Apple the opportunity to control what you can and can’t do with the iPad, what apps you can run, what you can look at on the Net and so on. It’s another mechanism of control which smacks the face of being an open opportunity. Yes the product will have an impact in many areas, and you will enjoy using it. The bigger picture is more bothersome in my humble opinion.
Firstly, it’s not a computer. Secondly, it’s more like a portal that can run apps on the cloud. Thirdly, the size is a problem for power users. I see the iPad as a distraction, mobile computing should be your focus if you are a developer of apps. You can argue that the iPad is a mobile device, but you would be hard pressed to convince me. With only 1.7 Billion people on the Internet to date and another 3.3 Billion to come over the next 3 – 5 years, the iPhone, BlackBerry & Android are more likely the tools of choice over the iPad.
There will be a niche for the iPad but that’s a far cry from being the future of computing. The future of computing is in the Nanotechnology field, we will merge with technology and become wireless devices in the next 30 – 40 years. I won’t be around to see it most likely but it will be very interesting to watch the progress.
I suspect I’ll pick up an iPad at some point, but it’s not the future of my computing. Soon you won’t be able to buy Desktop Computers (Towers), Laptop’s will slowly disappear in the next 5 years, leaving the iPhone, BlackBerry, Android & iPad? Microsoft just announced a phone as well, we’ll see more before it’s all said and done. Don’t bank on any one thing in the next 10 years, we are going to see more change than ever before, making it impossible to predict what is and isn’t possible.
Net Neutrality is all about control and Apple isn’t about to move beyond that model anytime soon by the looks of things. I am more interested in ecosystems that benefit all, not just a chosen few.
What do you think? Is the iPad the future of computing or is it a shortterm product making way for something better?
The Ambiquity of Technology
I’m thinking out loud today and thought I would share those thoughts with you. It’s been said we know the future, and we know what it looks like, but do we really? Yes we can predict with some accuracy what might happen, we just can’t describe the details, what color and what shape. Most people keep their head to the grind stone, look up once and awhile but for the most part they work till the bell rings. There are a chosen few who can’t stand the grind stone and have their heads in the clouds. I’m one of those characters, I love looking at the future, I love seeing what has yet to come and I love to share what most can’t see. It’s not that visionaries are better or smarter, they just see the world differently.
It’s not too hard to see that technology is getting more and more advanced and much smaller, we all embrace the use of handheld devices. Computers…towers and laptop’s will be a thing of the past in the next 5 years or so. Some of you remember the 1st Cell Phone, it was HUGE, today it’s almost the size of a credit card. If Ray Kurzweil is correct in his predictions, we will become wireless devices by merging with technology. Imagine that! Soon the Internet will be readily available anywhere in the world, it won’t matter which device you use, you will have access.
Embracing ambiguity is the secret sauce, and I mean embracing ambiguity in most things online, not just technology. Technology is growing exponentially, therefore we can’t really predict it’s advancement with accuracy. We can however see where technology is going, the deliverables are another issue. Like most things in life we can deduce them to an equation but we really can’t tell you in great detail or when it actually delivers. Visionaries can see what’s coming and they work hard to help you understand it, they just aren’t clear on when you can have it.
Creativity is a function of ambiguity really, we start with an idea, a concept and work within that ambiguity until it takes shape. If you invested in that ambiguity, that would suggest you have huge faith that it will come to fruition. Afterall, you wouldn’t risk without some form of faith that thing you are creating will actually deliver. So why is it so hard for most people to function in ambiguity? It’s a thing called security, we want some kind of quarranttee we won’t lose anything, but will gain everything. Technology is one of those rare fields where that’s possible and we are willing to accept almost every technilogical invention we lay our hands on. For some reason, most are comfortable here in the technology sector, even though the risks are the same in any other catagory or profession.
My point, we can’t possibly know the outcome of any one thing. We must dream big, and with that means we will have to risk big and create within the ambiguity until we have a clearer idea of what’s really going on with our creation. If we always played it safe, do you think we would be where we are today? I doubt it.
So, no matter what you do, whatever profession you happen to be in, try to embrace ambiguity and make it your friend. It won’t be easy, if you have ever been poor or had more month than money, you know what it means to not know where or how you were going to make the ends meet. That kind of ambiguity can turn you inside out, if you’re in Ministry or are required to raise funds in order to pay your bills, you know what I’m talking about.
I share alot about the future of technology, and the new open & free business model, and I need smart people to make sure the predicted progress is done right. Not only do I embrace ambiguity, and not everyone can, it is however easier to embrace the ambiguity of technology.
Are you a risk taker, are you comfortable with ambiguity? Is it the mystery that draws you or is it the anticipation of something new and cool to use?
How will you get Attention over the next 3 – 5 years
The Future of I.T. Strategic Planning
We will have to unlearn much of what we understand about I.T. Strategic Planning, the landscape is a never ending body of movement, change and definition, static rules are no longer useful. Much of what we know is in the control model, we build closed systems to protect data and deflect those who wish see it. In the future much of this data will not be behind walls, much of it will be readily available for consumption. Data that is not for consumption by the world will still need to be kept safe, but for the most part, it will be available.
Depending on how your organization is structured, bricks & mortar, I.T. Teams already in place, you will still have to adopt to the new Open & Free Business Model and wireless connectivity. Content normally consumned will conitinue, some content that was not available will find it’s way out into the open.
If you ask CIO’s today what the landscape will look like in the 5 – 10 years they probably can’t tell you. Why? If the exponential growth of technology is to continue we will have to learn or find a way to think exponentially, not continue in our linear fashion. Information Technology is going 2,4,8,16 and 30 steps later you are at a billion. The growth rate is impossible to keep up, let alone predict what we will or won’t be able to do in the next 10,20,30, to 50 years. Many of us might not be here to witness the true Matrix like living, but Virtual Reality will seem more real than the reality you live today. How do we plan for Virtual Reality?
I.T. Strategic Planning in the future will have to embrace more open business models and develop for everything mobile, infact, you should be doing that today! Simple things like the need for tech support will be gone, you won’t need to budget for personal, you will only need to budget for nanotechnology that will seemlessly fix problems, because we will all be connected. Remote access won’t exsist as we know it, it will just happen, and authentication won’t be necassary because clearance will be built in. The current framework won’t work for your organization 5 years from now. CIO’s will have to view everything with bionic contact lenses, where everything technology is about being mobile, embedded into eye care, and handheld devices. In the far future we will all become wireless devices and be seemlessly connected to the data we need.
The I.T. Strategic Planning steps I have made available here on my Blog, work for todays business models, but in the next 3 – 5 years they will fail because the plans won’t scale. There are 1.7 Billion on the Internet today, over the next 5 years that number will grow to 5 Billion, has your current I.T. Strategic Plan factored in this large growth already? What does that kind of growth mean to your organization, and how does it impact your I.T. Strategic Planning?
You may understand what your organization needs today, but are you looking out far enough, do you have enough information to show executives what is coming, I’m not convinced most CIO’s are looking. The future of I.T. Strategic Planning will no longer start will the 1st building block, we are way past that now, we will be building ontop of what we have already.
Remember, you don’t know what you don’t know, we can’t see the details of what’s coming but we know something far bigger is coming, and it’s not a small home network. I spend a great deal of time looking at the future and I work backwards to present day, that’s where helping you figure things out gets interesting. Creative ideas on how to adapt new technologies, how to use them and how they will improve revenues is where you should invest your time.
I.T. Strategic Planning is morphing, changing shape, are you fighting it or going with it? I would love to hear your thoughts on the future of I.T. Strategic Planning.